Univision forecast: Latino vote will sink Trump in Florida
Donald Trump will lose the election in Florida - the swing state with the most electoral votes - because most Latinos won't vote for him, Univision News predicts.
As a result, it's virtually impossible for him to win the White House due to the electoral college system, according to a a Univision data analysis of the key five swing states expected to determine the outcome in November.
The forecast, based on a statistical analysis of the presidential race, found that Hillary Clinton will win 48.39% of the vote in Florida, versus 44.87% for Trump.
Clinton will beat Trump by 3.52 points in Florida, Univision News predicts.
44.87
48.39
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
The Democratic candidate will win Florida by approximately 297,000 votes.
4,083,000
votes
3,786,000
votes
44.87
48.39
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
Clinton will win thanks to the Hispanic vote.
*percentage points
Hispanics: 12.0*
Hispanics: 5.8*
( 1,009,000 votes)
( 489,000 votes)
44.87
48.39
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
Without Hispanic voters, Clinton would lose Florida by 3.2 points.
47.9
44.7
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
Clinton will beat Trump by 3.52 points in Florida, Univision News predicts.
44.87
48.39
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
The Democratic candidate will win Florida by approximately 297,000 votes.
4,083,000 votes
3,786,000 votes
44.87
48.39
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
Clinton will win thanks to the Hispanic vote.
*Puntos porcentuales
Hispanics: 12.0*
Hispanics: 5.8*
( 1,009,000 votes)
( 489,000 votes)
44.87
48.39
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
Without Hispanic voters, Clinton would lose Florida by 3.2 points.
47.9
44.7
TRUMP
CLINTON
% of the Florida vote
THE ESSENTIAL STATE
Of all of the swing states, Florida has the largest number of electoral votes: 29. If he loses Florida, Donald Trump has no chance of attaining the 270 electoral votes needed to become president.
To win the presidency, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes
0
0
164
242
270
270
According to polls and historical trends, the candidates are guaranteed
164
242
and
The candidate who wins Florida will gain 29 electoral votes
0
0
164
242
270
270
Clinton only needs 28 to win the election
According to Univision's forecast, Trump will lose Florida
0
0
164
242
FLORIDA
270
270
Without Florida, Trump won't have enough electoral votes
Trump's defeat in Florida will stem primarily from the Hispanic vote, since Latinos have a growing influence in the state and show a clear preference for Clinton. According to our forecast, 18% of Florida voters in November will be Hispanic. Of those, 6 out of 10 will the Democratic candidate.
Republicans still haven't found a way to reach Florida’s Latino voters. In 2012, President Barack Obama won Florida with a boost from Hispanics, and won reelection. He needed 58% of the Latino vote to win the state, but he won even more: 60%.
FLORIDA
% OF
HISPANIC VOTERS
IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Hispanics
9.2
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
11.3
11.2
15.4
17.3
2016
18.5%
Projection
Hispanic vote
prediction (2016)
OTHERS
4.2%
CLINTON
TRUMP
64.5%
31.3%
FLORIDA
% OF
HISPANIC VOTERS
IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Hispanics
9.2
1996 election
2000 election
2004 election
2008 election
2012 election
11.3
11.2
15.4
17.3
2016
18.5%
Projection
Hispanic vote
prediction (2016)
OTHERS
4.2%
CLINTON
TRUMP
64.5%
31.3%
% OF
FLORIDA
HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Hispanic vote
Hispanics
prediction for 2016
OTHERS
4.2%
TRUMP
18.5%
31.3%
17.3
15.4
11.3
11.2
9.2
CLINTON
2016
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
64.5%
Projection
% OF
FLORIDA
HISPANIC VOTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Hispanics
Hispanic vote
prediction for 2016
4.2%
OTHERS
TRUMP
31.3%
18.5%
17.3
15.4
11.2
11.3
9.2
CLINTON
64.5%
2016
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Projection
HOW THE PREDICTION WAS MADE
The Univision News forecast takes into 19 election variables since 1996, including presidential race results, Latino voter turnout and governors' political affiliation. It also considers the current election context, through variables like unemployment, President Obama's approval rating, inflation, income levels, and campaign and party strategy.
FIVE HISPANIC SWING STATES
The Univision News forecast focuses on five swing states where Latinos have the most influence: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico.
The forecast shows a slight advantage for Trump in Arizona, and in all other states Clinton is predicted to win. Univision predicts the Democratic candidate will sweep the Latino vote in these five swing states.
Relacionados
The fight for Nevada's Latino vote
HOW LATINOS AFFECT THE FLORIDA VOTE
This tool allows s to see how the presidential election will be affected by Latino voter turnout in Florida. The forecast model estimates that if 682,066 Hispanics in Florida cast their ballots (26.3% of eligible Latino voters), Trump and Clinton would tie with 46.5% of the vote. Any other additional Hispanic votes would give Clinton the advantage.
For example, if half of eligible Hispanic voters in Florida cast their ballots, the Democratic candidate would win the state with 47.8% of the vote versus 45.4% for Trump.
62.0%
Hispanics votes: 1,606,887
Ronny Rojas and Luis Melgar contributed to this report.